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Manly said while he’s confident about his chances of re-election, he’s not taking any chances and is making every effort to regain his seat. The Conservatives’ performance in the riding has remained more or less steady the last two elections at about 25 per cent of the vote. Manly’s first foray into federal politics under the Green banner in 2015 resulted in a tight four-way race where he took 20 per cent of the vote for the Greens, and then boosted that by 15 percentage points to win the riding in the next election. Manly won 35 per cent of the vote in 2019, beating the Tories’ 26 per cent, the NDP's 24 per cent, and the Liberals’ 14 per cent. “(The NDP) rail against the Trans Mountain pipeline, but I can’t even get Jagmeet Singh to say a word in the House of Commons when I ask him if he’ll support a ban on fracking,” Manly said.ĭespite the NDP taking every other riding on Vancouver Island save those won by the Greens in the last election, the Conservatives - represented this election by Tamara Kronis - proved to be the closest competition for the Greens in Nanaimo-Ladysmith in the last vote.
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government’s Coastal GasLink project to pipe natural gas to the LNG Canada terminus on the north coast. Manly agreed, saying voter displeasure with the NDP includes the federal party’s unwillingness to disavow the B.C. “And one of the challenges I suspect for Jagmeet Singh is that there are a lot of Green voters who are unhappy with the John Horgan government right now.” “What can happen in federal elections is that people's frustration with a provincial government can spill over into the vote,” Harrison said.
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Old-growth logging, forestry policy, and the contentious Fairy Creek blockades are hot-button issues with environmentally conscious voters across B.C., but particularly on Vancouver Island. The NDP is likely the Greens’ biggest competitor for the progressive vote on Vancouver Island, and school board trustee Lisa Marie Barron is the party’s candidate for Nanaimo-Ladysmith.īut there’s the possibility the federal NDP may pay a price for the perceived sins of its provincial counterparts, said Kathryn Harrison, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia. Now, in terms of leader favourability, Singh is leading the polls, if not in voter intention.
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Leadership transitions can be bumpy, Manly said, pointing to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s popularity struggle before he won his Burnaby riding in a byelection in 2019 nearly 18 months after becoming party leader. Paul is unlikely to win her seat, or survive the leadership review slated for the fall, which signals further turmoil for the party, Speers added. “With the new leader not travelling across Canada, not visiting Vancouver Island which has really strong Green support, I don't think that's helped the Green Party's overall level of support.” But May’s mantle of popularity probably won’t benefit Manly - who also can’t count on a bump from Paul given the leader hasn’t left her Toronto Centre riding area to campaign nationally and isn’t likely to, Speers said.